Erdogan's big time haggling at the NATO summit: The casus belli rhetoric, the concern about the F-35 and the Aegean "issues"

Greece has been the target of the Turkish leadership in recent months due to the defense agreements it has concluded not only with Israel but also with France. In fact, Mr. Erdogan himself has often expressed disparaging views about Greece's armaments programs, suggesting that they have no value and that they simply burden the Greek people.

"Did we ever ask Mr. Mitsotakis about the defense equipment that Greece has purchased: 'Why did you buy this?'" said the Turkish president, apparently forgetting his many statements even in the recent past.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during the press conference at the conclusion of the NATO Summit, which is considered successful not only in terms of the organization of the host country but also because, despite Donald Trump's explosive public interventions, a new rift was avoided, wanted to send, through the answers to the questions asked of him, messages about the Greek-Turkish relationship. Probably because he understands that Greece's stance is critical and decisive at the same time, for the great project of the Euro-Turkish rapprochement and Turkey's entry into European Defense.

Athens has set as a clear condition for Turkey's participation in the large 150 billion euro SAFE arms program the lifting of the casus belli, something that Kyriakos Mitsotakis directly raised a few months ago at the presidential palace in Ankara, in his bilateral meeting with the Turkish president, and reiterated yesterday, addressing both NATO and the EU. The Turkish side would not want the casus belli to be linked, even indirectly, to the F35 affair.

The Turkish president certainly understands that what he got from Trump was yet another promise and a show of good intentions regarding the F-35, but he obviously would not want this wait-and-see attitude to be attributed to Israel's public reaction or to the reservations expressed by Athens.

Mitsotakis’ statements

However, Kyriakos Mitsotakis himself was particularly careful in his statements yesterday in Ankara, when asked before and after the Summit about the F-35 issue. Asked whether the sale of the F-35 to Turkey would disrupt the balance in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Prime Minister replied: “I will not comment on yesterday’s statements by President Trump and President Erdogan. All I can say is that an alliance must be based on the fundamental principle of good neighborly relations. At a time when my country is facing a casus belli from Turkey in the event that we exercise our legal right to expand our territorial waters, I believe that it must be clear that the sensitivities of all NATO members must be taken into account. We are, after all, a defense alliance and I am confident that these pending issues can be resolved in the spirit of good neighborly relations and cooperation.”

After the Summit, answering questions from Greek journalists, he again replied cautiously: “It is not my job to comment on the choices of other countries, nor will Greece obviously indicate to the US to whom they will or will not sell defense systems. I am making a factual observation that at the moment there are significant legal obstacles in American legislation for Turkey to procure the F-35.” And he referred to the Greek F-35 program, recalling that “Greek pilots will begin training in 2027 on the Greek F-35, which, as you know, are already being manufactured and their purchase has practically begun.”

Kyriakos Mitsotakis even made sure to send a parallel positive message to Ankara, in an interview with A Haber, emphasizing that there is a problem, that of the delimitation of maritime zones, that must be resolved within the framework of international law and in accordance with the Law of the Sea.

Declaring himself a supporter of a constructive, functional and productive relationship between the two countries, the Greek Prime Minister emphasized that, even if we cannot solve the problem, it does not mean that we cannot live in peace, pointing out that decisions of the Turkish Parliament of the 1990s have no place in today's world.

Why Turkey was bothered by the reference to casus belli

Kyriakos Mitsotakis's two-time public reference to casus belli is what bothered the Turkish side, which understands that there is no intention from Athens to change its position on this matter. 

and Euro-Turkish ones, while the annoyance with the invocation of casus belli by Benjamin Netanyahu was also obvious, when he expressed, speaking to American television networks, his objections to the sale of F-35s to Turkey.

Because the reference to the existence of a threat of war against a member state of the EU and NATO, in order to not exercise a right recognized by International Law and the Law of the Sea, is an extremely convincing argument both to partners and even to American legislators.

Thus, the Turkish president tried to downplay the casus belli, saying that “the vast majority of my people do not even know what the issue of casus belli is. If you ask them what it is, they will not know. That is why I do not think we should concern our people with these issues. And we are already telling our Greek friends: let's not burden either the Greek citizens or our own citizens with this. Come, sit down, let's talk and let's finish the job.”

In any event, the Turkish president does not convincingly explain why, since the issue is so indifferent to Turkey, he maintains, and at great cost, the casus belli as official state policy.

The “issues” of the Aegean

The Turkish president, however, appeared, also due to the audience consisting of dozens of foreign journalists, willing to respond to the Greek prime minister's invitation, stating that he shares his view on the Aegean. “I also share the same view with Mitsotakis regarding the resolution of the “issues” of the Aegean. I hope, first our foreign ministers and then, if necessary, we will sit down at the table and discuss this issue…”.

This statement, of course, does not mean much, as after the NATO Summit in Vilnius (2023) the two leaders had agreed on a new process, which also led to the Athens Declaration, within the framework of which the two Foreign Ministers, George Gerapetritis and Hakan Fidan, had undertaken to explore the possibilities of either resolving the issue of delimitation or referring it to an international judicial mechanism.

Three years later and after several meetings between the two ministers, no common ground was found, as the first procedural but also substantive difference remains the determination of the scope of the dispute. With Greece insisting on the existence of a single dispute and Turkey seeking the examination, in the form of a package, of the entire framework of claims and disputes against our country.