The day after Libya's verbal statement: The Gerapetritis trip, the migration issue and the Saleh mission to Athens
The effort of Greece and Europe to intervene by any means in order to prevent a major migration crisis is in danger of being entangled in the vortex of the Libyan crisis, , while at the same time Athens is facing Libya's effort to promote and secure, from its own side, the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum.
Following Libya's verbal statement, with which it essentially asserts its claim against Greece based on the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum, Athens, in addition to the response which will also be given in a letter to the UN, is preparing for two crucial contacts: the visit of Giorgos Gerapetritis tomorrow to Tripoli, which is expected to raise - in addition to bilateral relations and migration - the proposal for the establishment of technocratic groups in order to restart, after 15 years, the talks on the demarcation. At the same time, a visit to Athens by the President of the Parliament based in Tobruk, Akila Saleh, is being prepared, in an effort to restore relations with Eastern Libya and prevent the possibility of ratification of the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum by Parliament.
The expected verbal statement from Tripoli to the UN, declaring its opposition to the median line drawn by Greece and based on which the plots of land east and south of Crete have been demarcated, came to refute expectations that there was a change of position from Tripoli. Expectations that had been created, since on the ground Libya, in drawing its own plots of land, had not attempted to overlap the Greek median line.
In the maps attached to the verbal statement, Libya, for the first time, records in an official document its claim against Greece, where, based on the continuation of the illegal Turkish-Libyan delimitation, the Libyan version of the median line moves northward, ignoring the influence of the small islands and almost nullifying the influence of even Crete itself, seeking to limit the Greek maritime zones to just a few miles outside the territorial waters of the islands.
The day after Libya's verbal statement: The Gerapetritis trip, the migration issue and the Saleh mission to Athens
With this move, Libya is attempting to react to the fait accompli imposed by Greece, which has not only unilaterally defined the median line based on Law 4001/2011, but also in the plots it has marked out in this context, the American ExxonMobil has already entered and Chevron is preparing to enter for research.
It is obvious that Tripoli (having, as it appeared in previous weeks, the support of the government of O. Hamad in Benghazi) is attempting to register its disagreement with the Greek median line, and without officially invoking the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum, it is putting forward the claims based on it, through the map it submitted.
From now on, of course, the question is whether the faltering Dbeiba government will proceed to the next step, which would be to mark out plots of land that overlap the Greek median line and follow the Libyan line (in the extension of the Turkish-Libyan demarcation) and offer them for exploration to foreign companies, most likely Turkish. Such a move would cause a major crisis.
However, in the verbal statement, as in the corresponding one of 2019, the Libyan side states that the dispute must be resolved through negotiations. This leaves a window open for initiatives by the Greek side. The goal cannot be other than the involvement of Libya, despite the abnormal political situation, in talks, which will aim to refer the delimitation dispute to The Hague.
It will be decided there whether Libya will torpedo the drafting of a joint undertaking, demanding that the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum be recognized, or will accept that the delimitation of the entire EEZ between the two countries be referred, in which case the legality of the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum will also be subject to the judgment of the Court. For Greece, it is also important, at this stage, that the ratification process of the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum by Parliament be canceled or at least delayed.
Flexible policy
During his visit to Benghazi, G. Gerapetritis expressed Greece's appreciation for the stance of General Haftar, who has rejected it since 2019, requesting his personal intervention so that there are no developments that will burden relations with Greece, referring to the information about the possible ratification of the Memorandum by Parliament.
The Greek side, in fact, proposed the immediate establishment of a joint committee of technocrats, which will examine the issue of the delimitation of maritime zones, with respect for the Law of the Sea and the rights of the two countries. The issue, however, of introducing the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum on the Parliament's agenda will be at the top of the agenda of the meetings that Aqila Saleh will have in Athens. He will present the same proposal to the Dbeiba government, during his visit tomorrow, Tuesday, to Tripoli.
After the crisis caused by the European mission, however, there have been goodwill gestures from Benghazi to Athens, (with the visit of Al Sadiq Haftar to the president of the Greek Community of Benghazi, K. Mandalio, and the meeting of Belkasem Haftar with the Greek Consul General of Benghazi, A. Kalognomimi) which show, at least at this stage and despite the overtures that Turkey has made towards Haftar's side, that there is room for understanding and cooperation with Greece, while leaving the room open for a new European mission to Benghazi, stating to the Greek diplomats that there was simply a "protocol problem".
Migration
However, a very important aspect in relations with Libya remains migration. The explosive conditions prevailing in the Sahel zone and in Sudan, the lawlessness in a large part of the territory of southern Libya, as well as the existence of armed militias and groups throughout Libya, which find a new field of action and secure financial income through the trafficking of migrants, create an extremely dangerous scenario. Libya is becoming a pole of attraction for would-be migrants not only from Africa, but also from Asia. Who arrive in Libya following the Turkey-Egypt-Tobruk route.
The abnormal political situation in Libya, with the existence of the internationally recognized but politically delegitimized government of Dbeiba in Western Libya, based in Tripoli (GNU-Government of National Unity), and the formation of a second government by Parliament with the support of General Haftar in Eastern Libya, based in Benghazi (GNS-Government of National Stability), creates serious difficulties for a coordinated intervention with the contribution of the EU, in order to stop the migratory flows.
The latest example of the complexity of the situation was the episode with the designation as undesirable of the European Mission, which, after Tripoli, arrived in Benghazi for talks with General Haftar.
The handling of the visit obviously presented problems, as the Commission - justifiably - wanted to avoid moves that would give a form of indirect recognition of the alternative government. However, the possibilities of using the formula under which foreign ministers and diplomatic missions based in Libya meet with the authorities and members of the Benghazi government, without this constituting recognition, were probably not examined.
The official interlocutor of the foreigners is Haftar, as head of the LNA (Libya National Army) and the President of the Parliament Aqila Saleh, as the GNS government is not internationally recognized.
Both the E.U. and European countries that are currently "burning" to find a solution and to have coordinated action on migration, it is a given that they cannot limit themselves only to contacts with the Tripoli government. Any intervention must be carried out in cooperation with the Eastern Libyan authorities, who have control on the ground.
Athens, having to deal with the explosion of migratory flows towards Crete at an operational level, obviously did not want the European intervention in Benghazi to be wrecked. All the more so, as in the meeting that George Gerapetritis had with Khalifa Haftar, there was an initial understanding for cooperation, both bilaterally and at the European level, to address the problem. Now, there is concern about how this understanding of the EU with Eastern Libya will be restored, as it is urgent to take measures.
No one overlooks, of course, that General Haftar is instrumentalizing the migration issue, wanting to secure resources from Europe and ultimately the indirect recognition of the entity of Eastern Libya, which would strengthen its position in political developments in Libya.
General Haftar, having imposed order in Eastern Libya, understands that the concentration of migrants who cannot find a way to Europe will create an explosive climate in the area he controls, threatening to disrupt internal security.
G. Gerapetritis had pledged to support every request made by Benghazi to the EU, not only for maritime surveillance, but also for the creation of infrastructure on Libyan territory and the intensification of controls on Libya's southern borders. He conveyed Greece's offer to inform the authorities with data from the two frigates sailing outside the Libyan border zone about the departure of suspicious vessels and expressed Greece's readiness to offer support at a bilateral level.
Cooperation measures
In the meeting with General Haftar, as well as with his son, Belkasem Haftar, who is in charge of the Reconstruction Organization, the Greek Foreign Minister had also agreed on the following The Greek government had offered a package of cooperation measures, including: training of Libyan Navy officers at the National Naval Academy, scholarships at the Armed Forces and Military Medicine production schools, scholarships for postgraduate students, and the promotion of the Benghazi-Greece air connection.
- Published in Greece
