How much will Trump's tariffs affect Greece?

According to ELSTAT data in 2024, Greek exports to the US accounted for 4.8% of the total value of Greek exports. Greek exports closed in 2024 at €49.9 billion, and to the US they amounted to €2.4 billion, with a surplus, as imports of American products amounted to €2.16 billion.

Trump’s sweeping tariffs may seriously affect Greek exports in a sector that has been steadily growing lately: food and beverages, and more specifically, products such as Greek wines, olive oil, feta cheese, Kalamata olives, baked goods, etc., are threatened due to the increase in costs they will have for American importers.

Greek olives have one of the strongest presences on American shelves, with Greece being the main country of origin for imported olives in the US. According to PEMETE, the value of exports in 2024 amounted to 241 million euros, an increase of 39% in one year. At the same time, 45,000 tons of olive oil were placed on the American market in 2024, according to data from the Association of Greek Olive Oil Standardization Industries.

Feta, which holds the lead in export products and PDO cheeses, face the risk of becoming less attractive due to price increases. The value of feta exports to the US in 2024 amounted to 53.6 million euros.

Greek wine exports (with the US as the second largest market) may suffer a blow if tariffs are passed on to final prices, limiting demand in an already competitive market. Greek wine sales in 2024 amounted to 19 million.

In other sectors, such as metals, for example, industry players reassure that the immediate consequences will not be significant, as the exposure of Greek mining products to the risks of tariff imposition is not great, resulting in businesses in the sector not being vulnerable. The indirect effects are a different story as both the European and international economic environment will be affected, disrupting trade and supply chains. More specifically, a possible reduction in exports to Greece’s European trading partners is expected. 65% of Greek exports are to EU member states. First and foremost, Italy, Germany, France, but also Cyprus, which are Greece’s main trading partners. This may dictate new priorities in trade policy, such as opening up to third markets, such as Asia and Canada.

The other side of the coin in the trade balance is imports. Europe has already signaled through Ursula von der Leyen that it will respond to the imposition of tariffs. What will this mean? That the products we import from the US are likely to increase in value, as they will be subject to additional tariffs.

Greek exporters are more concerned about the blow that the European economy will receive and how much this will affect our exports to the EU and less to the US itself, as 50% of our exports are directed to Europe.

Let's not forget that exports to the US concern to a large extent the Greek diaspora, who have learned and become accustomed to preferring Greek products as being of higher quality and more "their own", and therefore will continue to buy them.