HSBC: Meddling in other people's affairs.
- Written by E.Tsiliopoulos
International banking giant and investment house HSBC, during a pre-election period, issued a report which deals with Greek political uncertainty and how it could hurt the debt relief efforts.
The bank report adds to the early election speculations by assessing that it's not only very possible, but that it would derail fiscal adjustment efforts and further complicate talks about a potential third assistance package the country might need.
According to the report, if opposition party SYRIZA gets a favorable result in the upcoming local and European parliament elections in May, it could lead to early general elections for the country.
Even if the twin May elections don't lead to early parliamentary elections, the HSBC report says, it could still happen in the first quarter of 2015, if the government and the opposition fail to agree on a pick for the next President of the Republic, with the existing President's term ending in the spring of next year.
The HSBC working theory is that under these circumstances, the government will be in non stop campaigning mode, with austerity measures gradually subsiding under the general public's disapproval.
If all that comes true, HSBC's paradigm sees complicated talks for a third memorandum between Greece and the Troika, even if the running fiscal review is completed successfully and all May bonds (worth around 10 billion euros) are payed in full. This, of course, refers to the primary surplus which the government considers an ace up its sleeve when it comes to negotiating the country's fiscal needs.
What HSBC is suggesting is common thread in the German press these days. The possibility of a long period of political instability is, for thesee sources, the worst case scenario for early elections, involving the derailment of all structural and fiscal efforts so far.
Obviously creditors want to tighten the belts on their borrowers, and at the same time in a “two birds-one-stone” tactic, such banter will shore up the government if it decides to tough it out with the troika, and shore up creditor claims in the near mid-term.
The message sent: Don't change horses in mid-stream.
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