Syria: Greece’s role, the anxiety over the migration issue and Turkey’s moves

December 9, 2024
Written by E.Tsiliopoulos

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Syria: Greece’s role, the anxiety over the migration issue and Turkey’s moves

Europe maintains a stance of wait-and-see, offering well-wishing statements about a smooth democratic transition and the protection of all national and religious minorities in Syria. This is because the downfall of Assad took European capitals by surprise, and they currently have no access to any of the major players involved in the “great game” that has unfolded.

The hardening of Assad’s regime in recent years, its convergence with Iran, and the support it receives from Russia have left a significant “black hole” in the EU’s Middle East policy. Now, the main concern is what the next day will look like for this key Middle Eastern country, so that it does not turn into a new Iraq or Libya. Even more so, there is concern about the potential for a new civil war, which would be catastrophic for the region and lead to another wave of refugees from this war-torn country.

Greece’s Position

Athens, aligning with other major European countries, issued a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that “welcomes the fall of Assad’s authoritarian regime in Syria.” Greece supports Syria’s unity, territorial integrity, and sovereignty, emphasizing that “peace must be ensured in the country immediately, and a smooth transfer of power to a democratically legitimized government must take place, based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254.”

Greece, which will soon assume its duties as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, will play a significant role in shaping the international community’s position on the situation in Syria. This adds additional responsibilities and obligations, especially since Greece is located in the broader region of the crisis and is directly affected by developments in Syria.

There is particular interest in the Greek community in Syria, which, according to unofficial figures, consists of no more than 150 families throughout the country. Since there has not yet been a repatriation request (most are third- and fourth-generation), the main concern is their safety.

Migration Issue

The refugee issue remains a source of concern, as the stabilization of the situation in Syria could eliminate a major source of migratory and refugee flows. In Turkey, nearly 4 million Syrian refugees are likely to return to their home country, relieving Turkey of the enormous pressure that it has placed on Europe. If, however, the situation in Syria deteriorates again, this pressure will increase, and new routes for human traffickers will be sought, with Cyprus likely being the first stop on the way to Europe.

The Role of Turkey

However, for Greece, the broader regional shifts brought about by Assad’s fall and the strengthening of Turkey’s role are of particular interest. At the moment, Turkey is the only country with significant influence over internal developments in Syria. If this role is maintained and confirmed, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will leverage it in his foreign policy dealings, particularly in negotiations with the EU and the new American government under Donald Trump.

Athens has kept its embassy open until now, although the ambassador and two other staff members have been evacuated to Athens for security reasons. However, the remaining personnel continue to serve on-site.

Special Envoy for Syria

Since 2020, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had created the position of Special Envoy for Syria, appointing Ambassador T. Athanasiou, who had previously served in Damascus (2009-2012 when the embassy closed due to the civil war), to this role. This position has proven to be particularly useful. During her tenure, Ambassador Athanasiou had direct access not only to the UN Syria Office but also to institutions in Damascus. She had organized a visit to Athens by members of Syria’s Constitutional Committee for consultations. There had even been a proposal to organize a meeting in Greece between the UN and Syria’s Constitutional Committee regarding the country’s constitution, an issue that remains highly relevant today. Furthermore, at Greece’s initiative, an informal meeting of the EU Special Envoys for Syria was held in April 2023, in cooperation with the EU, with the participation of the UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen. During this meeting, the then Foreign Minister, Nikos Dendias, had one-on-one talks with Pedersen.

The latest developments make it necessary to re-activate the position of Special Envoy for Syria, which had become inactive after T. Athanasiou was appointed to the embassy in Malta.

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