Two Americans and 25 European ministers in Greece for the EU’s energy independence

The war in Ukraine, the strategic confrontation with Russia, the redesign of Europe’s defense and energy security architecture under the lens of the new “aggressive and unconventional” U.S. foreign policy, provide, after several decades, a favorable opportunity for Greece to emerge as an energy hub and a provider of security in the wider region.

As the Vertical Corridor can now serve as a major gateway for U.S.—and not only—LNG to Eastern Europe and Ukraine, it represents a significant step toward Europe’s energy independence from Russia.

This independence has not only economic but also major geopolitical significance, as it deprives Russia of enormous financial resources for its war machine and simultaneously removes from Moscow the leverage it has held for decades to impose its influence even on key European countries such as Germany, Italy, Austria, Poland, and others.

Priority

However, priority will be given to U.S. LNG, as this option has been directly linked by U.S. President Donald Trump to the new strategic balances being formed, as well as to maintaining the Transatlantic Relationship and EU-U.S. security cooperation at a high level. The Vertical Corridor also bypasses the Straits and the Black Sea, at a time when Turkey fails to comply with President Trump’s “instructions” to halt energy supplies from Russia.

Turkey, in a goodwill move, has entered into two agreements for long-term U.S. LNG purchase contracts. However, fully cutting off from Moscow is not easy, as it continues to purchase up to two-thirds of its imported oil from Russia, with discounts of up to 15%, saving billions of dollars and curbing inflation.

Greece’s role in supplying Eastern Europe and Ukraine, through LNG infrastructure at Revythoussa and Alexandroupolis—a market estimated to need 16 billion cubic meters of natural gas after the Russian gas tap closure—is crucial.

This role will be confirmed next Thursday and Friday at the Transatlantic Energy Cooperation Partnership (R-TEC) Summit, held in Greece with the participation of two top U.S. officials: Secretary of the Interior and Energy “Czar” Doug Bergman and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and possibly Deputy Secretary of State Michael Rega, while 24 Energy Ministers from the EU and the Balkans have been invited.

It is notable that the U.S. delegation will consist of nearly 50 people, including ministry officials and representatives of major U.S. companies, who will discuss cooperation and investment plans.

The Vertical Corridor will be the top agenda item. Holding this meeting in Athens is the result of choices made by the Trump team, as well as efforts by the Greek government, especially Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou and Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis.

At the meeting, the new U.S. ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle, is expected to make her first official appearance. She is expected to arrive in Athens over the weekend. On Tuesday, she will present her credentials to President Kosta Tasoulas, and on Wednesday she will host her first reception at the ambassadorial residence in honor of the two U.S. ministers, the accompanying businessmen, and the elite of the Greek business community, expected to attend in the residence’s garden on P. Kyriakou Street.

“Vote of confidence”

Beyond the obvious importance for Greece of this U.S. “vote of confidence,” it is extremely significant that the first major and substantive contact with the new U.S. administration is not for listing problems or requests, but for a dynamic, strategically important energy plan, which also has business significance for the United States.

Moreover, this plan involves individuals closely connected with President Trump, such as the three U.S. ministers and the new ambassador. During meetings with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, U.S. officials will review the full scope of bilateral relations, which are at an excellent point. Beyond energy issues, cooperation on defense and security remains a high priority.

For Athens, from the moment Trump assumed office, priority was given to identifying areas of convergence where bilateral relations could be repositioned compatibly with Trump’s view of transatlantic relations and the U.S. role in regional conflicts and confrontations.

The Middle East was a major test. However, due to Greece’s participation in the UN Security Council, there was an opportunity to develop a functional relationship with the U.S. on other regional issues.

Just last week, Gerapetritis communicated with U.S. Special Envoy for Africa Massad Boulos to discuss the Security Council resolution on the major Western Sahara crisis. Given the personal relationship that the U.S. president repeatedly claims to have with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Athens is attempting to build on-the-ground relations.

Consistent and reliable allied cooperation, spearheaded by the Souda naval base, military infrastructure facilitation, and the energy Vertical Corridor, which has economic but mainly geostrategic significance, creates a very positive foundation.

On this basis, daily discussions and major agreements are taking place, preparing for the supply of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. to Greece, targeting Eastern European countries via the Vertical Corridor.

In a few days, a commercial agreement is expected with a top U.S.-linked LNG production company for significant LNG supply, covering a period of more than 20 years.

The Greek government also awaits the new U.S. ambassador’s initiative, who has had phone communications with the Foreign Minister ahead of assuming her duties. Sources in Athens and Washington indicate she shows willingness for substantive work, arriving with specific proposals and aiming to deliver immediate results.

Cooperation

These proposals mainly concern energy sector cooperation, not limited to the Vertical Corridor. The goal is also to bring new U.S. companies to Greece, particularly in Renewable Energy, while cultural cooperation is also high on the agenda.

Those who met her during preparations for assuming her post describe Guilfoyle as sharp, active, and determined to contribute in her new role. On a personal level, she wants to prove she can meet the demands of her role and honor the choice made for her. She has already studied Greece’s dossier in depth before arriving in Athens and played a key role in organizing high-level contacts for Economy Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis in Washington.

Within the balances forming under Trump’s environment, special attention is paid to Guilfoyle’s relationship with Thomas Barrack, also a personal friend and Trump’s choice for U.S. ambassador to Ankara. Barrack is a strong, multifaceted personality, businessman with a wide network, but also a person with ideological biases regarding the region.

He has never hidden his admiration for Turkey and may attempt to overshadow other U.S. representatives in the region to impose his approaches and objectives. According to a U.S. source, despite some media reports, no initiative plans have emerged for regional issues.

5×5 Forum

Greece’s 5×5 forum initiative is being met with interest, as the U.S. has always favored multilateral cooperation frameworks in the region. For now, however, U.S. envoy Massad Boulos has focused on Libya, which also concerns Greece. Boulos had numerous contacts with all parties in Libya.

This week, he met with the President of Libya’s Presidential Council, Mohamed al-Menfi, while a post from the International Investment Conference in Saudi Arabia revealed that U.S. President Trump’s son Eric met with Khalifa Haftar’s son Belkacem, overseeing the Reconstruction Fund of Eastern Libya.

In Tripoli, a senior delegation from Chevron also held talks with the state company NOC and Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah to expand energy cooperation, which is particularly relevant given Chevron’s involvement in Greek offshore blocks south of Crete.

Starting point: Revythoussa

In the Vertical Corridor, an important first step was last week’s successful auction to secure LNG quantities that, starting from Revythoussa, will be sent via Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova, with the final destination being Ukraine. Ukraine is making a titanic effort to ensure adequate energy reserves for the coming winter while critical energy infrastructure has suffered severe damage from Russian missiles.

This development is the result of coordinated action by Vertical Corridor operators: DESFA (Greece), Bulgartransgaz (Bulgaria), Transgaz (Romania), VestMoldTransgaz (Moldova), and GTSOU (Ukraine). These companies offered an attractive long-term program with lower transit fees, agreed upon in a meeting in Athens with Mr. Papastavrou.

This initiative comes at the right time, as Ukraine urgently needs gas imports. Estimates suggest import demand will increase by approximately 10% compared to initial plans. The Vertical Corridor will require additional major projects with significant investments, some of which will involve Greek energy and construction companies.

Beyond Revythoussa and the Alexandroupolis FSRU, a second FSRU is deemed necessary to meet demand, while back-to-back agreements for reselling gas to Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Moldova, and Ukraine are being prepared. These plans are attractive for leading U.S. funds to participate through capital and guarantees, supporting the massive effort to rebuild Ukraine and reduce Eastern Europe’s dependency on Russian energy.

In Greek-U.S. cooperation, the involvement of major oil companies Chevron and ExxonMobil in blocks south and southwest of Crete is also important. These U.S. giants want to maintain a presence in the region, especially now that the hydrocarbon era is not ending as quickly as expected, particularly after Trump’s election, and amid doubts over rapid green transition plans.

For Greece, the presence of these U.S. giants in a sensitive region with unresolved maritime zones is extremely significant. Greece also plays a role in transporting Azeri gas via TANAP and TAP, as recent developments are expected to increase capacity to meet additional needs.

Alexandroupolis as key

Rapid developments in Europe’s energy independence from Russian gas now position Greece as an energy hub, with Alexandroupolis playing a decisive role.

The Vertical Corridor connecting Alexandroupolis with Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and through them Central European countries is no longer just a paper plan; with official U.S. support, it is entering the implementation phase.

The project aims to transport liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Alexandroupolis to Europe. LNG will arrive by ship at the FSRU facilities in Alexandroupolis, where it will be regasified and sent into the vertical pipeline. The pipeline will also operate bidirectionally, able to receive natural gas from the Caspian via TAP.

Implementing this ambitious project ensures Europe’s energy security and independence from Russia. It creates the possibility of diversifying sources (suppliers) and gas routes. In the future, the bidirectional Vertical Corridor could also support the green transition, as the same network could transport environmentally friendly hydrogen.

The entire project is strategically significant for all of Europe, which is why the EU supports it, designating it a “project of common interest,” with the associated implications for financing and implementation support.