Jefferies: Starts coverage of Greek banks

The target price it gives for National Bank is 6.60 euros with a buy recommendation – estimating that it could soon start distributing a dividend from the profits of FY 2022, while it maintains a hold recommendation on Eurobank and Piraeus Bank with a target price of 1.65 euros and 2.50 euros respectively, and gives an underperform recommendation for Alpha Bank with a target price of 1.10 euros since, as it explains, the risks to its profitability are not sufficiently valued by the market.

At the same time, it warns that the picture of bad loans will show discrepancies between banks.

Jefferies notes that it remains relatively bullish on the broader outlook for asset quality, but believes that National Bankis well positioned, with low NPE (6.1%) and high coverage (82%), creating room for a gradual normalization of provision levels .

Conversely, despite the more favorable NPL mix, Jefferies sees Alpha Bank's low coverage (39%) as less justified, and with the NPE ratio still elevated (8%), it sees the risk that the pre-forecast gains will continue to be absorbed by high forecasts in the coming years.