Snap election speculation

Mr Samaras’s government must find the support of 180 MPs to appoint a new president in February or early elections will be triggered - the coalition government has a slim majority of 154 MPs out of 300.

The mood is darkening throughout the coalition government. Anxiety dominates both in the parliamentary groups of coalition partners New Democracy and PASOK. The recent opinion polls that show SYRIZA holding a steady lead of roughly 5 points lead over New Democracy (with PASOK’s numbers tanking in the low single digits) have helped engender feelings of insecurity, anxiety, and defeatism.

The increasing speculation over potential early elections has triggered and exacerbated rifts within the government. Clashes have broken out both between ministers belonging to the same party, and between New Democracy and PASOK ministers, lending weigh to the view that the current coalition government will not be able to remain in power for long.

Several ministers privately admit that as long as the question of the election of a new president remains open, speculation regarding early elections will continue to intensify. Health Minister Makis Voridis even went so far as to say so openly in recent statements, saying that, “The prospect of elections is in the minds of all of us, so long as the situation remains unclear.”

Amid the preparations for the start of negotiations with troika representatives in Athens, the government appears unable to steer a steady course, while a chill has fallen over the relationship between the coalition partners. Antonis Samaras’s recent statement at an event celebrating 40 years since New Democracy’s founding when he described his party as ‘the democratic party’ continues to cause chafing among PASOK officials who repeatedly stress that their party is ‘only cooperating with New Democracy due to the crisis and is not its tail.’

Meanwhile conditions continue to foster an increasing polarization in the country as the long process of negotiations with the country’s lenders commences, a process which will be key for the country’s economic and political stabilization (and always under the shadow of the presidential election). The swords are out once more, political passions are running high and political players are already butting heads.

The government is having difficulty in lightening the burden for citizens – chiefly from high levels of taxation – which it needs to do in order to mitigate the anger directed at it due to the recent implementation of the new unified property tax (ENFIA). Similarly it is struggling to provide citizens with concrete signs of the much promised economic recovery which would put it in a better position to raise the 180 votes it needs to appoint a new president and avoid early elections.

All realize that the next three months will determine much with regards to the economy and even more politically. If the government can hang on, if it can achieve a compromise with its creditors and elect a new president of the republic, then it may be able to escape from being in a position of managing fears and find itself in the far more preferable position of managing hopes.

Yet there are many who doubt that it can achieve this. Even in among conservative voices in the media – for example the center-right newspapers Estia and Dimokratia - consider that the middle class is being destroyed and that the ENFIA tax will be a catalyst for political developments.

The consequences of the economic policies that have been pursued on the country’s political map are already evident. The political cost to the coalition government of the politics of austerity are so great that they are already causing tectonic shifts in the political system which, over the past few weeks has appeared to be built on quicksand.

The mass movements of supporters from party to party seen in the run up to the last two elections (the general elections of 2012 and European elections last May) is becoming evident again, affecting the political bases of all of the parties represented in parliament (and some which are not, such as newcomer To Potami). And everything shows that the violent transformation of the political scene which began months ago will be accompanied by a concurrent rise in social tensions which once again is becoming apparent.

Political horse-trading

For the first time since the fall of the dictatorship, fevered negotiations can be seen all along the political spectrum. The horse-trading and backroom negotiations that are currently occurring begin on the left and extend all the way to the ultra-right, with particular intensity around the political center.

As would be expected the party that is suffering the most damage is New Democracy, and that’s why Antonis Samaras’s first move last Saturday at New Democracy’s 40th anniversary was to make an opening to like-minded political blocs.

The prime minister believes that the political damage that his party has suffered can only be repaired by a simultaneous broadening of his party’s appeal both to the right and the center. Yet while Antonis Samaras is attempting to reshape the center right, voices are growing for the creation of a purely right-wing party.

The most intense activity is however seen around the political center where SYRIZA now occupies the dominant position. Towards SYRIZA more and more officials from the Democratic Left as well as PASOK are gravitating, while To Potami (the River) could also be a potential future ally in government. Already Potami leader, Stavros Theodorakis, with the momentum of strong polling numbers indicating his party will be represented in parliament following the next elections, is expected to meet with SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras in the coming days.

The opposition leader for his part is attempting to quietly transform his party into a center of political power, seeking stable partners in Europe as well as among the business and investor communities active in Greece. His central goal is to remain the only opposing pole to Antonis Samaras in the coming elections absorbing, as much of PASOK and Democratic Left as he can.