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Three scenarios in Brussels

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos will go to Brussels to present to the lenders to Greece's new proposal for an agreement with the latter to consider three scenarios for the next day.

 

The agreement has to do with:

A new program of structural reforms
A parallel currency
An orderly default and exit the euro

As Kathimerini writes, after the resounding 'No' in the referendum Greek partners in Brussels will consider these three scenarios, that will be discussed openly and examine how much a rescue or exit of Greece from the eurozone would cost politicaly and economicaly and what consequences it would have.

First scenario: A new program would require very major structural reforms on the Greek side, and much larger than the last proposal by Juncker. However, it is the most expensive of all, requiring deficitscoverage, reimbursement of internal borrowing made over previous months by Greece and recapitalization of banks. It is doubtful whether this is will be passed by the government SYRIZA-ANEL at first, but if the political will exists it will be implemented.
Second scenario: Introduction of a parallel currency, primarily through promissory IOUs, something that will essentially be the first step of an exit from the monetary union. Furthermore it will be something entirely hybrid within the monetary union. To do so requires a very organized state and a very good technical preparation.
Third scenario: controlled bankruptcy and leaving the euro. The climate after the referendum has engendered particularly angry feelings in the European Commission against the Greek government and its credibility. 16 of the 18 remaining members seem to be in favor of the third scenario, ie a controlled bankruptcy and leaving the euro. The only two members that are against this third solution is France and Cyprus, with Paris, according to European officials, vacillating.
This scenario foresees a modest funding, mainly to cover commodity imports (balance payment facility), in order to prevent a humanitarian crisis, and probably some support for the banking system. However, Greece will only cover the budget deficits, a significant portion or all of recapitalization needs of banks and part of the deficit.